2024 CANADIAN HOUSING MARKET OUTLOOK

REGIONAL HIGHLIGHTS

RE/MAX brokers and agents across Canada were asked to provide a year-over-year analysis of their local market between January 1 and October 31, and share their estimated outlook for 2024. Based on their insights, the majority of regions surveyed noted many homebuyers are looking for primary residential properties with rental potential, to get the most out of their investment and offset the rising cost of living and reduce mortgage payments. This is likely to be a leading influential factor heading into 2024, according to RE/MAX brokers and agents across the country.

WESTERN CANADA

In Western Canada, average residential prices are anticipated to rise by two per cent in Metro Vancouver, BC, Nanaimo, BC and Saskatoon, SK, and by four per cent in Edmonton, AB next year. Meanwhile, regions such as Victoria, BC, and Regina, SK are anticipating a modest two-per-cent decrease in average residential sale prices in 2024. Although most regions are currently considered to be balanced markets, Saskatoon, SK is an outlier and currently a seller’s market. In 2024, Edmonton, AB, and Saskatoon, SK are expected to favour sellers, Victoria, BC is anticipated to shift to a buyer’s market and Metro Vancouver, BC and Regina, SK foresee continuing balanced conditions. Meanwhile the market in Nanaimo, BC is anticipated to be a mix of buyer’s and balanced conditions in 2024.

Amid ongoing economic pressures and rising interest rates, affordability and the cost of living continue to be top liveability considerations for potential homebuyers in Western Canada. This has led to an increase in demand from first-time homebuyers for primary properties that also have the capacity to provide them with rental income, in places such as Victoria, BC; Vancouver, BC; Edmonton, AB; Nanaimo, BC; and Saskatoon, SK. The only outlier to this trend is Regina, SK, as the relative affordability of the region provides homebuyers with greater financial flexibility, as compared to other provinces.

Looking ahead to 2024, interest rates and low inventory are likely to continue placing pressure on the market, particularly among first-time homebuyers in regions such as Edmonton, AB, Nanaimo, BC and Saskatoon, SK. However, these same conditions may allow Metro Vancouver, BC to remain balanced. Although Regina, SK provides many aspiring homeowners with a pocket of affordability, demand and supply are not expected to skew market conditions significantly.

ONTARIO & QUEBEC

Much like Western Canada, shifts to average residential prices are a mixed bag in Ontario. Specifically, prices are anticipated to increase by two per cent in Thunder Bay, ON and Ottawa, ON; three per cent London; 3.5 per cent in Hamilton, Niagara and York Region; four per cent in Sudbury and Burlington; 4.5 per cent in Kingston; five per cent in Muskoka and Haliburton; seven per cent in Oakville; and 7.5 per cent in Windsor and Sault Ste. Marie. Meanwhile, prices are anticipated to remain unchanged in Mississauga, Brampton, North Bay, and Kenora in 2024. Looking ahead to 2024, Peterborough and the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) are both anticipating a slight decline of three per cent in average residential prices, while Durham Region and Grand Bend are anticipating a decline of five per cent.

Despite various markets in Ontario favouring sellers or experiencing balanced conditions in 2023, the majority of regions are currently buyers’ markets including, Niagara, Mississauga, Durham Region, Brampton, Grand Bend, North Bay, Muskoka, Haliburton and Kingston. Although Hamilton and Burlington experienced varying conditions throughout the year, both have shifted toward buyer’s markets in Q4 of 2023. Looking ahead to next year, Mississauga, Brampton, Simcoe County, Muskoka and Haliburton are likely to balance out from their current buyer’s or seller’s conditions. The GTA market is anticipated to gain balance in 2024 but is also expected to favour buyers at certain points of the year. Considering the interest rate environment and the cost of living this year, housing market conditions in 2023 have fluctuated. As interest rates have recently paused, many markets are stabilizing with several regions in Ontario (61 per cent), expected to remain unchanged in 2024 from their current market conditions.

Despite cost of living becoming a more prominent consideration for homebuyers and sellers, additional emerging liveability trends in Ontario include the desire for greater access to public transportation and green space, as well as proximity to preferred schools.

In tandem with Western Canada and Atlantic Canada, both cost of living and interest rates are the most prominent factors impacting Ontario markets.

These factors are leading many Canadians to become resourceful and focus their home-buying search on properties that can accommodate additional tenants, as a means to offset mortgage costs and ongoing affordability challenges. Meanwhile in Quebec, market conditions are aligned, with both Quebec City and Montreal favouring sellers. In Quebec City average residential sale price is anticipated to remain unchanged in 2024, but the market is expected to shift into greater balance next year. Meanwhile, Montreal is expected to move toward a buyer’s market in 2024, but that is dependent on interest rates. Although many sellers are taking a wait-and-see approach to the market, pressure from rising rates could encourage more homeowners to list their properties for sale. Much like the rest of Canada, the cost of living is a top consideration for Canadians in the Quebec region. Additionally, the return to in-person work post-pandemic has prompted rising in properties with proximity to workplaces and public transport. In 2024, rising interest rates could limit the purchasing power of potential homebuyers, weighing on the Quebec market.

ATLANTIC CANADA

In Atlantic Canada, the majority of regions are anticipating a modest increase in average residential sale prices, including, Fredericton, NB (+3.6 per cent); Saint John, NB (+3.5 per cent); Moncton, NB (five per cent); and St. John’s & surrounding area, NL (three per cent). The only exception is Halifax, NS, where average residential sale price in unlikely to waiver. Currently, all markets are considered to be seller’s markets, a condition that is expected to hold firm in 2024, with the exception of the St. John’s, NL area, where the market is expected to regain balance in the coming year.

Looking ahead to 2024, low inventory will continue to impact local housing market conditions in Atlantic regions. Despite this being the most dominant factor impacting the market, rising interest rates also hold the potential to rattle buyer confidence. When it comes to liveability, cost of living is one of the most prevalent trends in the Moncton, St. John’s, Fredericton, Saint John and Halifax markets. Current economic conditions and ongoing affordability challenges have led first-time homebuyers in particular to expand their homebuying search to include semi-detached homes or properties with rental income potential.

LEGER SURVEY RESULTS

While the market is anticipated to cool in the first half of 2024, Canadians’ perceptions of real estate as a good investment haven’t shifted since 2022. According to a Leger survey commissioned by RE/MAX as part of the report, Canadians perceive homeownership as the best investment they could make (73 per cent), a number that has stayed consistent since last year’s report. Yet, more than half (54 per cent) are concerned that interest rate increases will impact their ability to engage in the real estate market. This will impact millennial homebuyers most acutely, with 73 per cent agreeing with this statement.